Friday, February 25, 2011

The Answer: Who is HAL's Grandfather?

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When the Stanley Kubrick’s movie 2001: A Space Odyssey came out in 1968 it was a cinematic delight, and it has since been heralded as one of the greatest films ever made. In the film, the American spaceship Discovery One is bound for Jupiter on a classified mission to discover why a smooth, black monolithic stone discovered on Earth’s moon is transmitting a signal to Jupiter. Most of Discovery’s operations are run by an artificial intelligence computer named HAL 9000, or HAL for short. The movie gave a prophetic glimpse into the future, which is still many years away, even a decade after the year in its title. However, some of the science fiction has become a science reality, or is in its genesis.

In 2004, IBM executives were pressuring their research division to make a high publicity impact that would be comparable to the 1997 challenge where IBM’s Deep Blue bested chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov. A team of computer scientists took on the challenge to build a computer that would eventually challenge the world’s top champions in a game of Jeopardy! by understanding complex puns, humor, and difficult context in the English language, as well as master a great number of subjects. The project took endless patience to break down the way we think into small components that could be “taught” to “Watson, named after the founder Thomas J. Watson.

Last week that challenge was aired between February 14 and 16, where Watson handily beat Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter in the game were they seemed invincible against other human opponents. What made the story so intriguing, though, is not that Watson won, but the enormous effort needed to compete against the human brain. It took a roaring complex of computers made up of 90 IBM Power 750 Express servers powered by 8-core processors with a total processing capacity of 80 teraflops – or one trillion operations per second. A Power 750 server retails for $34,500, so the 90 servers cost about $3 million. Watson was “fed” 200 million scanned pages of content, which is about 1 million books, movie scripts, and encyclopedias. All of this computing power was supplied by enough electricity to light up an entire town, just to approximate the question-answering part of our mind.

By comparison, the biochemical computer that sits on your shoulders has a stunning array of a trillion synapses and neurotransmitters that weigh about three pounds, is so efficient that it can operate on about 12 watts of energy (less than two typical 7-watt nightlights), and it can it run for hours on a donut and can of soda.

Watson’s sophistication is still far from the artificial intelligence exhibited by HAL (which interestingly, but it is only coincidence, that each of the letters of HAL’s name immediately precedes those of IBM in the alphabet). According to David Ferrucci, the lead investigator to the project, Watson is a powerful computer that can store a lot of data and runs algorithms that correlate data, understand context, and find answers. Ferrucci asserts that there’s no one algorithm that can replicate human thinking.

HAL, which stands for Heuristic ALgorithmic computer, had the ability to use heuristics, which is a programmable procedure that produces a well-informed guess to problem-solve situations that are not based on fixed rules. An algorithm is a programmable procedure that does produce predictable and reproducible results. It’s conceivable that in several proceeding generations, Watson may spawn a future HAL-type computer that has the ability to think and reason, but minus the human paranoia and foibles that plagued HAL.

The real intent for Watson was to monetize its computing power commercially, and IBM is now collaborating with the University of Maryland, Columbia University, and Nuance Communications to develop a physician’s assistant service. It will take two years to fully develop a computer that will be able to diagnose a patient’s condition by using Watson’s analytics technology to quickly scan the patient’s health information, as well as reference materials, prior cases, and the latest research in journals and medical literature to determine the best practices and options for treatment.

Nuance is involved in cutting-edge speech recognition that will allow Watson-like computers to hear and understand people. This will help broaden its applications to call centers, emergency rooms, education, retail, risk management, financial services, and an array of government purposes. According to Katharine Frase, vice president of industry solutions and emerging business at IBM Research, “this is just the beginning of a journey.”

Someday, with the knowledge gained from Watson and his progeny, that journey may take us to Jupiter and beyond.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

The Right Fit

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I rarely buy shoes and clothes online or through a catalog because no matter how good it’s described on paper, I really don’t know how it will fit until I try them on. The picture and product description may be enticing, but we all know that the burger at your favorite fast food restaurant never looks as good as the picture that gets you to buy it.

The same can be said when choosing a person for a position. They may look great on paper, but you really don’t know if the person will be a good fit for the organization until they’ve been in the position for awhile.

According to the paper, the Association of Community College Trustees (ACCT) has been tasked by the Board to scrutinize 31 applicants and then transmit the top seven candidates to the Presidential Search Committee (PSC) so they can narrow the number of individuals down to the top two to three finalists who will then be interviewed by the Board. In a Saturday article, it was stated that the top seven candidates will be the ones “who best meet the ACCT’s standards, criteria, and qualifications.”

I’m sure that ACCT has a lot of experience working with boards and trustees in the U.S. to help them screen candidates who will become the top executives of U.S. institutions. However, what concerns me is that this external organization has been entrusted to use a template that may work well in the United States, but may be flawed to predetermine who would be the best chief executive officer for the CNMI’s only accredited institution for higher learning. Other than reading something about the CNMI or College on paper or online, have the individuals vetting the applicants visited Saipan or the campus? Do they understand our situation and the unique circumstances to help them choose someone who would be the best fit for the institution? I seriously doubt it.

I’m not saying that we should not use outside resources or not hire someone from off-island, and in good times this should seriously be considered. However, during this critical time it is imperative that the next president is fully aware of the grievous situation at the College, and is committed to the institution and community to get us through it. Considering that the College has been declared non-essential by the government and receiving less revenue, is on continued Show Cause, and is paying far below the norm for the position (according to a new survey, the average salary for executives at two-year institutions is $165,000), it begs the question: why would anyone who is qualified from off-island really want the position right now?

There are a lot of candidates who will look good on paper, and who may receive high marks when judged against ACCT’s standards, criteria and qualifications; however, they may be a poor fit for Northern Marianas College specifically and the CNMI in general. We have already seen two off-island hires that appeared well-qualified with doctorates and experience at other institutions. Yet, one was terminated and the other resigned before his contract ended to avoid termination.

The point I’m trying to make is that the best candidate is most likely someone that is from Saipan or has lived here long enough to know the community and College; yet, they may not pass ACCT’s standards and qualification used to evaluate applicants for U.S. institutions. Rather than entrust the PSC members to establish their own criteria to review ALL the candidates, I feel they have been hobbled in the process to narrow the field of players down to the ones who would be the best fit for the College and community. My main reason for applying for the position was to ensure there was a large enough pool of applicants from the CNMI to help avoid making another mistake of hiring a person that looks good on paper, but does not understand the unique circumstances, culture, and situation we are facing at this time.

My hope is that the Board and/or search committee will request that those individuals who are seriously being considered share the same four points I have presented in my previous articles: 1) why did they apply for the position – what is their motive and what will they bring to the position; 2) what is their 100-day agenda and what do they hope to specifically accomplish; 3) what are their personal beliefs and philosophy so that we can get to know them better and understand their management style; and 4) what do they know about the College and what are their ideas for improvement.

Whoever is eventually hired, it is imperative that there is a good fit between the College and the new president. Even though the clock is ticking and there may be a temptation to fast-track the hiring process before the March 15th deadline, there is just too much at stake to make another costly and regrettable hiring decision that could cause greater damage in the short- and long-run.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Ideas to Improve the Strategic Position of Northern Marianas College

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Over the years I’ve collected ideas from my work in the trenches with students, faculty, staff, and from working with business owners that would benefit Northern Marianas College. As president, I would gather additional ideas by meetings with internal and external stakeholders and then prioritize the best ones to implement and achieve shared goals. If politics could be minimized, and the College Board, administration, personnel, legislators, and community were focused on key goals, I believe our enrollment would substantially increase and NMC would become a greater asset to the CNMI.

NMC is performing far below its potential, but through a concerted effort combined with strong leadership to achieve strategic goals it will eventually: 1) become a critical resource for the CNMI community; 2) develop a solid reputation in the Pacific Rim and become a vital partner with other educational institutions to educate and train their students; 3) expand its programs to serve the needs of more local individuals and entities; 4) develop other profit centers and revenue sources that allow NMC to expand; and 5) become financially less dependent on the government.

The following are just a few of the many ideas to improve the strategic position of NMC and allow it to achieve the above objectives:

• Develop a track degree program that would allow individuals working full-time to complete course work after working hours and going only two nights per week. Two courses would be taken in a nine-week period to complete the required 45 hours. This would allow students to complete the necessary hours to qualify for financial assistance, and to graduate with a cohort group in about two years. The program would appeal to individuals working full-time or part-time, individuals with small children who have difficulty with day-care during the day, or anyone else who has trouble arranging their schedule to remain a full-time student. This idea has already been developed, but not pursued and implemented.
• Develop a partnership with quality institutions to offer a bachelor’s degree in business, criminal justice, or other areas that best serve the students and community. Ideally, the university partners would accept all of the credits from NMC and would allow students to seamlessly transition to their own institution if students wanted to finish their degree at their university. There are several schools that currently accept all of NMC’s credits, but the arrangement needs to be formalized and then promoted.
• Work closely with businesses to prepare a program that would best prepare displaced local workers to transition from the private sector to the public sector. Also, have a short training program that would teach basic job skills needed to succeed at work. The Northern Marianas Trades Institute has ably taken over the role once performed by NMC; however, the College could work more closely with NMTI and develop non-competing training programs that focus on high technology trades such as CAD, movie production, sound editing, etc. (NMC currently has a nearly-completed sound studio that is being used as a warehouse for whale bones and books.)
• Contact larger government or business organizations and offer courses or a degree program tailored to their needs. This could also be a certificate program that their staff could earn quickly, or it could be a program that would give graduates a hiring advantage. It could be a “college without walls” that would have the instructors going to the organization’s facilities and teaching courses on-site and at times most convenient to the individuals. This would allow many more courses to be taught without using NMC’s buildings or resources.
• Develop partnerships with Korean, Chinese, and/or Japanese colleges to allow students to study at NMC for a semester to develop their language skills and interact with U.S. citizens. This could be reciprocal, in that we could also send local students to their schools to study abroad for a semester and gain a greater appreciation and understanding of the country. These students could take a language course for a semester to hone their language skills while they are there.
• Develop a stronger ESL program that attracts individuals from other countries who want to perfect their English. This would include our regular semester-long courses, or it could include intensive courses that are taught for credit. This would be a total immersion course lasting 3-4 weeks for someone with a basic understanding of English, or it could be a 6-9 week course for those with little English-speaking ability. Such a program would also be attractive to businesspeople who are not pursuing a degree, but want to learn English.
• Create an International Student Office that has the mission to serve international students so that their transition, studies and graduation from NMC is a rewarding and positive experience. This would not only assist current international students, but would encourage positive word-of-mouth promotion for NMC to further increase enrollment.
• Hire professional advisors to increase retention and provide greater support to students. They are busiest at the beginning and end of the semester, so during the middle of the semester, they would be utilized to work with the high schools to provide students with guidance, career advice, and plan for their future academic goals. The advisors would more than pay for their salaries by improving retention and helping build strong relationships with the school administration and teachers.
• Develop more online courses and create an online degree program that caters to Tinian and Rota students. These courses would also be attractive to many local residents living in the U.S. because the cost is less per credit hour than other online institutions and they could get an associate degree in liberal arts and then focus on a bachelor’s degree at a local university. This idea alone could significantly increase enrollment and revenue without a correlating increase in cost and infrastructure expansion because students could complete courses from their laptops in the comfort of their homes.

In order for these ideas to become reality, NMC must become more customer-focused and develop strong partnerships with local, U.S., and international entities. These ideas, if implemented, could have a significant impact on the College; however, research and planning are needed to determine their viability and estimate the economic and social impact. My general estimate is that enrollment would increase from as little as 50 percent to as much as 100 percent within the next two years. More importantly, it would reposition the College as a vital resource for the CNMI, improve morale, increase retention, and stabilize the financial situation of Northern Marianas College.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Guiding Beliefs as NMC President

“He does not believe who does not live according to his belief.” -- Thomas Fuller

There is always some risk when trying to decide which candidate for a position would be the best pick. It’s obvious that a person will give answers to interview questions that will put them in the best possible light; however, it’s important to look deeper into a person’s psyche to really understand who they are and what guides their decisions. People are creatures of habit and they will always act in accordance to their inner values and beliefs. They might say one thing in public that is socially accepted, but act differently when it comes time to make a decision. If someone says they believe one way, but act in contradiction to that belief, then they are fooling themselves or trying to fool those around them.

In my 100-Day Strategic Agenda I shared last week, I stated some of the actions I would take as the president of Northern Marianas College. I would now like to share a set of five beliefs that were included in my original application for president, and how they would guide my decisions and actions to help turn around the College. These beliefs may also explain why I decided to apply for the position of the president of the College.

We are at a critical juncture in the College’s history that can either prove to the community that we are a vital asset to the Commonwealth, or become just another autonomous organization pleading to not have our budget cut further. I believe we have the capacity to become even better and stronger for the following reasons:

I believe that Northern Marianas College is a key resource in the Commonwealth to improve the economy and the lives of its residents. It has the ability to enhance the CNMI’s most valuable asset – the minds of its people. Through better education, people have better ideas that will translate into better solutions to our current challenges. The College also has the ability to attract millions in grants and student funding that will circulate throughout the economy.

I believe that we can develop programs that will not only better serve all the people of the Commonwealth, but will also bring us safely through whatever economic difficulties we face ahead. The advances and opportunities available through technology have only scratched the surface at the College. Through online registration, online courses, and other programs that tap the power of technology, we can grow the College exponentially.

I believe that Northern Marianas College has enormous potential to rise above the challenges to become the premier College of choice for not only students on Saipan, Tinian, and Rota, but for Asians in the Pacific Rim looking to improve their English language skills and gain a competitive advantage to get accepted at Universities in the United States. There is an enormous opportunity available by providing enhanced English education and training courses. Short-term, intensive, and regular courses are needed and we are strategically located to offer these courses to individuals in countries close to the Pacific Rim.

I believe that it will require someone who knows the College and understands the needs of the students and community in order to strengthen and develop meaningful programs, and has good organizational skills to bring everyone together at NMC to meet the challenges. My experience working with businesses to enhance their revenue base and optimize efficiency will be applied to assist the College to overcome its financial challenges.

Most importantly, I believe in the ability of the people at the College to come together during challenging times. They have done it numerous times in the past and most recently with the reaffirmation of WASC accreditation a couple of years ago. Even though we are on Show Cause again, I believe that our talented, educated, hard-working, and caring faculty and staff can overcome any challenge ahead if they are given the opportunity. It will require the right person who will trust in their abilities, and who can steer the College in the best direction. It will also require the right leader and the right kind of leadership that people can trust in to allow them to make the right decisions.

NOTE: When my application package was originally presented almost six months ago the College was in a difficult situation, and it is even more severe today. If the “window of opportunity” is still open, each passing month that a president is not in place exponentially makes it more difficult to execute a successful turnaround without a cohesive strategy, and as government revenues continue to dwindle.